muhammed.raouf@awstreams.com – Fundament Capital

Research, Rigour and Conviction

muhammed.raouf@awstreams.com — Tue, 07 Jul 2026 09:26:43 +0000

A specialist strategy is only as strong as the research behind it. At Fundament Capital, the investment process combines deep, bottom-up equity research with quantitative analysis and market intelligence — a discipline applied specifically to commodities and natural resources. In the conversation that follows, two members of the firm’s investment team discuss how the firm reads the commodities landscape, builds conviction in a holding, and turns rigorous analysis into differentiated investment views. The discussion was led by Kenzy Alshurafa, a private banker at the firm.

Commodities and the Real Economy

muhammed.raouf@awstreams.com — Mon, 06 Jul 2026 08:43:48 +0000

Commodities are among the oldest asset classes, and among the least understood by private investors. They underpin the real economy — energy, food, industrial materials — yet they remain underrepresented in most portfolios. Fundament Capital, a Dubai-based investment and advisory firm, specialises in this space. In the conversation that follows, members of the firm’s investment team set out the case for commodities, the rationale behind the firm’s investment approach, and the infrastructure required to manage commodity risk. The discussion was led by Kenzy Alshurafa, a private banker at the firm.

UK Borrowing Costs Soar Amid Fiscal Stress and Market Uncertainty

muhammed.raouf@awstreams.com — Tue, 23 Sep 2025 08:46:39 +0000

UK long-term borrowing costs have surged to their highest levels since the late 1990s, with 30-year gilt yields briefly touching 5.64% before easing to 5.6%, driven by global bond market pressures, Donald Trump’s clashes with the US Federal Reserve, and concerns over the UK’s fragile economic outlook.

Analysts warn the UK faces a fiscal trap of weak growth, high taxes, and persistent deficits, with Capital Economics estimating that rising yields could slash chancellor Rachel Reeves’ fiscal headroom from £9.9bn to £5.3bn and potentially force up to £27bn in new tax measures or spending cuts. The gilt sell-off has been sharper than in German Bunds or US Treasuries, fuelling fears of stagflation as inflation hovers just under 4%, constraining the Bank of England’s ability to cut rates.

At the same time, the BoE’s £100bn-a-year quantitative tightening programme is under scrutiny, with investors cautioning that bond sales are depressing prices and undermining market stability. While 10-year yields remain below January’s highs, the combination of fiscal stress, inflation concerns, and policy credibility questions has left gilts underperforming peers, with investors warning of risks of a “market tantrum” unless the government reins in spending or the BoE slows QT. Meanwhile, the pound has firmed against the dollar, but derivatives markets show traders now expect only one BoE rate cut over the next year, compared with four for the Fed.

Oil Prices Under Pressure as IEA Forecasts Rising Supply Surplus

muhammed.raouf@awstreams.com — Tue, 23 Sep 2025 08:44:25 +0000

The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned this week that world oil supply is set to rise much faster than demand, creating the risk of a significant surplus into 2026, in sharp contrast to OPEC’s more upbeat outlook. The IEA now projects global supply will increase by 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 and a further 2.1 million bpd in 2026, driven by both OPEC+ unwinding cuts more quickly and rising production from the U.S., Canada, Brazil, and Guyana.

While the agency slightly raised its 2025 demand growth forecast to 740,000 bpd, this remains well below OPEC’s estimate of 1.29 million bpd, with the IEA emphasizing the structural impact of renewable energy adoption. The supply surge, alongside sanctions risks on Russia and Iran, has already weighed on oil markets, with Brent crude slipping below $67 a barrel despite being higher than April’s $58 low.

The IEA sees inventories building at an “untenable” 2.5 million bpd in the second half of 2025 and an implied surplus of 3.3 million bpd in 2026, while OPEC’s own calculations point instead to a potential deficit of 700,000 bpd if output stays steady.

This divergence underscores a widening split between the two organizations’ outlooks, even as Saudi Arabia pushes OPEC+ to lift output and China’s stockpiling helps keep near-term prices supported through market backwardation.

Market Reacts as Bank of Japan Announces ETF Unwind and Policy Tensions

muhammed.raouf@awstreams.com — Tue, 23 Sep 2025 08:38:58 +0000

The Bank of Japan sparked sharp market moves after unveiling plans to begin selling its massive $250 billion ETF holdings and revealing an unexpected split over interest rates.

While the central bank kept its policy rate at 0.5% as expected, two board members dissented in favour of a hike to 0.75%, a rare sign of growing internal pressure to tighten policy as core inflation, at 2.7% in August, has remained above the BoJ’s 2% target for three consecutive years.

The decision to unwind ETF holdings — about ¥330 billion in book value annually, or roughly ¥620 billion at market value — is the first step in reducing a position that at one point amounted to 7% of the total Japanese stock market, though at this pace the process could take decades.

Markets reacted swiftly: the Nikkei 225 swung from record highs in the morning to close down 0.6%, the yen strengthened against the dollar, and government bond yields rose as traders priced in a higher probability of a 0.25% rate hike by October or early 2025.

The announcement came against a backdrop of political uncertainty, with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party heading into a leadership contest after losing its parliamentary majority, while rising living costs and weak wage growth remain central issues shaping both policy and sentiment.